THE RACE
Mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida (the state’s 4th largest city)
THE CANDIDATES
Former St. Rep. Rick Kriseman (our client), Mayor Bill Foster, Kathleen Ford (councilwoman), two other candidates
THE CHALLENGES
FROM 36 POINTS BEHIND: An early 2012 poll showed Kriseman trailing the mayor 59%-22%. When the race began in earnest in the Spring of this year, Kriseman trailed Foster significantly and trailed Ford by 18 points. The Tampa Bay Times said, “When Kriseman announced his candidacy in February, few people gave (him) ... a reasonable chance to win.”
ENVIRONMENT NOT GOOD FOR CHALLENGER:
The entire race Bill Foster had a job approval from 55%-59% and public polls showed 72% of residents thought the city was “on the right track.” This was not an ideal environment to defeat an incumbent. • GROUND ZERO WITH AFRICAN-AMERICANS: In past mayoral races, the African-American vote was the key swing vote. Kriseman began with only 16% of the black vote (49% for Ford; 28% for Foster. Ford and Foster had 70-80% name id in this community). • REPUBLICANS DROP 250K: In the last three weeks, the Republican Party dropped $250,000 in attack ads on TV and in direct mail. Kriseman was outspent by 3-1 in the last two weeks.
THE PRIMARY RESULT
We came from nearly 20 points behind Kathleen Ford to beat her by 20 points and go into the general down 39%-41% to Foster. We moved from 16% with black voters to capture 45% on Election Day. We also moved 20% with our other target: women voters over 50.
THE GENERAL RESULT
Kriseman won 56%-44% overall. The Tampa Bay Times reported that: “Foster is the first incumbent to lose the job since residents approved a strong-mayor form of government in 1993.” A WTSB-TV reporter said “This was a shocker.” And the WTSP-TV website said Kriseman’s win was “eclipsing most predictions.”